Modeling and Forecasting of Air Pollution with Particulate Matter PM2.5 Depending on Weather Conditions in Urban Areas - A Case Study from Plovdiv, Bulgaria
 
Maya P. Stoimenova-Minova*
 
University of Plovdiv „Paisii Hilendarski", Faculty of Mathematics and Informatics, Department of Applied Mathematics and Modeling, 24 Tzar Assen Str., 4000 Plovdiv, BULGARIA
*Corresponding author: maq.stoimenova@gmail.com
 
Abstract. One of the main global environmental issues with direct impact on public health is preserving clean air in urban areas. The latest report by the European Environment Agency details the progress made towards meeting the air quality standards comparing it against the official requirements set out in EU directives. The objective of this scientific study is to model air pollution in the city of Plovdiv with fine particulate matter smaller than 2,5 micrograms per cubic meter (РМ2.5). A CART method is used and based on best results obtained forecasts are made for future particulate matter pollution for 2 days ahead. Data from actual measurements taken between 1 February 2014 and 30 June 2019 and data from meteorological measurements are used. This study is an alternative to the official reports by the Regional Inspectorate of Environment and Water for the city of Plovdiv, which enables forecasting future pollution and its prevention.
 
Key words: Particulate matter PM2.5, air pollution, pollution forecast, Classification and regression trees (CART) method.
 

Ecologia Balkanica, 2020, Volume 12, Issue 1 pp. 171-177
Article № eb.20130 [Full text - PDF]pdf

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